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1

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2

Loren C. Steffy, George P. Mitchell: Fracking, Sustainability, and an Unorthodox Quest to Save the Planet (College Station: Texas A&M University Press, 2019), p. 174 (livable forest), p. 23; interview with Dan Steward; Gregory Zuckerman, The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters (NewYork: Portfolio/Penguin, 2013), p. 21; Dan Steward, The Barnett Shale Play: Phoenix of the Fort Worth Basin (Fort Worth: Fort Worth Geological Society, 2007); Russell Gold, The Boom: How Fracking Ignited the American Energy Revolution and Changed the World (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 2014).

3

Interview with Dan Steward; Steward, The Barnett Shale Play; Gold, The Boom; Steffy, George P. Mitchell, p. 23 (sad); Roger Galatas, Why George Mitchell Sold the Woodlands, The Woodlands History, December 2011 (hated).

4

Interview with Dan Steward; Steffy, George P. Mitchell, p. 254 (quarter billion).

5

Interviews with Dan Steward, Nick Steinsberger, and Larry Nichols.

6

Balancing Natural Gas Policy: Fueling the Demands of a Growing Economy, vol. 1 (Washington, D.C.: National Petroleum Council, September 2003), p. 16; National Petroleum Council, Committee on Natural Gas, September 3, 2003, transcript, pp. 30-31 (hell of a big difference).

7

Interview with Larry Nichols.

8

Land man , , . . .

9

Russell Gold, Natural Gas Costs Hurt US Firms, Wall Street Journal, February 17, 2004.

10

Potential Supply of Natural Gas in the United States, Report of the Potential Gas Committee (2011, 2019). President Obama, Remarks on Americas Energy Security, Georgetown University, March 30, 2011.

11

Billion cubic feet 1 . . 1 . 2,83 107 3. . .

12

Trillion cubic feet 1 . , 2,83 1010 3. . .

13

Interview with Mark Papa; Lawrence C. Strauss, The Accidental Oil Man, Barrons, October 22, 2011.

14

Interview with Mark Papa; EOG Presentation, 2010.

15

Interview with John Hess; Time, December 1, 1952.

16

Cornell Lab of Ornithology, All About Birds: Says Phoebe; Scott R. Loss, Tom Will, and Peter P. Marra, The Impact of Free-Ranging Domestic Cats on Wildlife of the United States, Nature Communications 4 (2013); Christopher Helman, Judge Throws Out Criminal Case Against Oil Companies for Killing Birds at Drilling Sites, Forbes, January 18, 2012; United States v. Brigham Oil & Gas, L.P., 840 F. Supp. 2d 1202 (D.N.D. 2012); Federal Court Holds That the Migratory Bird Treaty Act Does Not Apply to Lawful Activities That Result in the Incidental Taking of Protected Birds, Stoel Rives LLP, January 30, 2012.

17

Edgar Wesley Owen, Trek of the Oil Finders: A History of Exploration for Petroleum (Tulsa: American Association of Petroleum Geologists, 1975), pp. 886, 890.

18

Jon Meacham, Destiny and Power: The American Odyssey of George Herbert Walker Bush (NewYork: Random House, 2016), p. 92.

19

Richard Nehring, Hubberts Unreliability, Oil and Gas Journal, April 17, 2006; Leta Smith, Sang-Won Kim, Pete Stark, and Rick Chamberlain, The Shale Gale Goes Oily, IHS CERA, 2011.

20

Interview with Scott Sheffield; Pioneer Natural Resources, Wolfcamp Horizontal Play, Board Presentation, November 16, 2011; Pioneering Independent (Irving: Pioneer Natural Resources, 2018), chapters 8 and 9.

21

David Mitchell, Change Is Coming, New Orleans Advocate, September 23, 2015.

22

- COVID-19 12,3 .

23

Jason Thomas, Commodities, and the Global Slowdown, Carlyle Group, January 2020; Mohsen Bonakdarpour, IHS Markit Economics; PricewaterhouseCoopers, Impacts of the Natural Gas, Oil, and Petrochemical Industry on the U.S. Economy in 2018 (PWC, 2020).

24

Daniel Raimi, The Fracking Debate: The Risks, Benefits and Uncertainties of the Shale Revolution (NewYork: Columbia University Press, 2018); International Energy Agency, Tracking Fuel Supply (Paris: November 2019); Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, Keeping the Accelerator on Methane Reduction, Blog, April 2020, https://oilandgasclimateinitiative.com/keeping-the-accelerator-on-methane-reduction/.

25

IHS, Americas New Energy Future: The Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution and the United States Economy, vol. 1 (October 2012); vol. 2 (December 2012); vol. 3 (September 2013); Jeff Meyer, Trade Savings: How the Shale Revolution Helped Moderate the Trade Deficit, IHS Markit Report, July 2020.

26

American Chemistry Council, Notes on Shale Gas, Manufacturing, and the Chemical Industry, February 2020.

27

Daniel Fisher, Shale Gas and Buffetts Billions Fuel Turnaround at Dow Chemical, Forbes, October 15, 2014 (pivoted); Zain Shauk, Cheap Natural Gas Feeds Chemical Industry Boom, Houston Chronicle, April 19, 2012; Alex MacDonald, Voestalpine Bets Big on U.S. Shale-Gas Boom, Market Watch, May 24, 2013.

28

, , , , 17551763. . . .

29

Interview with Charif Souki.

30

Journal of Commerce, February 3, 1959.

31

Interview with Michael Smith.

32

Interview with Charif Souki; Gregory Zuckerman, The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters (NewYork: Portfolio/Penguin 2013), pp. 316-17.

33

Eliza Notides, The US Department of Energy Speaks, IHS CERA Alert, May 21, 2013; Department of Energy, Energy Department Authorizes Second Proposed Facility to Export Liquefied Natural Gas, May 17, 2013; Christopher Smith, Testimony on the Effects of LNG Exports on US Foreign Policy, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, U.S. House of Representatives, April 30, 2014.

34

Steve Holland and David Brunnstrom, Trump Urges Indias Modi to Fix Deficit, Reuters, June 26, 2017; Remarks by President Trump, President Moon, Commerce Secretary Ross, and NEC Director Cohn in Bilateral Meeting, June 30, 2017.

35

Interview with oil company CEO.

36

Interview.

37

Elizabeth Malkin, To Halt Energy Slide, NewYork Times, April 11, 2019; Jude Webster and Michael Stott, Mexico: Lopez Obrador Makes a Big Bet, Financial Times, October 3, 2019 (technocrats and sovereignty); Sergio Chapa, Mexicos New President Takes Nationalist Tone, Houston Chronicle, March 21, 2019 (transformation).

38

Andres Schipani and Bryan Harris, Can Brazils Pension Reform Kick-Start the Economy? Financial Times, October 22, 2019.

39

Remarks by President Obama on American-Made Energy, Cushing, Oklahoma, March 22, 2012; Jane Mayer, Taking It to the Streets, NewYorker, November 20, 2011 (game over); Kevin Birn and Cathy Crawford, Intensity of Canadian Oil Sands Production: A New Analysis, IHS Markit Canadian Oil Sands Dialogue, June, 2020. On permitting pipelines, National Petroleum Council, Dynamic Delivery: Americas Evolving Oil and Gas Transportation Infrastructure (Washington, D.C., 2019).

40

Interview with Carlos Pascual.

41

Keystone XL Pipeline Permit Determination, Press Statement, John Kerry, Secretary of State, Washington, D.C., November 6, 2015, https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/11/249249.htm; Background Briefing on the Keystone XL Pipeline, Special Briefing, Office of the Spokesperson, via teleconference, November 6, 2015, https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/11/249266.htm.

42

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Dakota Access Pipeline Environmental Statement, December 9, 2015; Dakota Access Pipeline, Addressing Misconceptions About the Dakota Access Pipeline, https://daplpipelinefacts.com/The-Facts.html; Daryl Own, The Untold Story of the Dakota Access Pipeline, LSU Journal of Energy and Resources 6 (Spring 2018).

43

Charlotte Alter, Inside Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezs Unlikely Rise, Time, March 21, 2019; Earthjustice, The Dakota Access Pipeline, https://earthjustice.org/cases/2016/the-dakota-access-pipeline; Paying for Standing Rock, Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2017 (bison); Blake Nicholson, State, Feds Address Cleanup at Oil Pipeline Protest Camp, AP News, February 15, 2017.

44

Journal of Commerce, July 8, 1946; March 9, May 12, 1948.

45

Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 2009), chapters 28-31; IHS Energy, US Crude Oil Export Decision: Assessing the Impact of the Export Ban and Free Trade on the US Economy (Houston: 2014).

46

Lisa Murkowski, Opening Remarks, CERAWeek 2015; Lisa Murkowski, John McCain, and Bob Corker, The U.S. Needs to End Its Ban on Crude Oil Exports, Foreign Policy, April 14, 2015; Maroš Sefčovič, A 21st Century Transatlantic Energy Compact, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., October 22, 2015.

47

Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy (NewYork: Touchstone, 2002).

48

Maroš Sefčovič, A 21st Century Transatlantic Energy Compact.

49

St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, June 2013; Thomas Donilon, Energy and American Power: Farewell to Declinism, Foreign Affairs, June 2013; Michael R. Pompeo, Speech at CERAWeek: U.S. Foreign Policy in the New Age of Discovery, March 12, 2019. On the impact on U.S. foreign relations, see Meghan OSullivan, Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens Americas Power (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 2017), chapters 5 and 6.

50

Bruce Jones, David Steve, and Emily OBrien, Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2014), p. 12.

51

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950, vol. 5 (Washington, D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, 1978), p. 1191.

52

Trade Partnership Worldwide, Trade and American Jobs: The Impact of Trade on U.S. and State-Level Employment, February 2019.

53

Carlos Pascual, The New Geopolitics of Energy, Columbia Center on Global Economic Policy, September 2015, pp. 14-15; Javier Blas, Iran Sanctions Push Oil Price, Financial Times, January 23, 2012; Iran: EU Oil Sanctions, BBC, January 23, 2012.

54

Christopher Alessi and Sarah McFarlane, Europe Opens Up to Other Gas Suppliers, Wall Street Journal, September 27, 2018.

55

Interview (Korea).

56

Interview.

57

Raoul LeBlanc, The Impact of Financial Discipline on Crude Supply, IHS Markit, January 23, 2020.

58

, .

59

, 1917 . . .

60

Angela Stent, The Limits of Partnership: U.S. Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014), p. 191 (energy superpower); Oliver Stone, The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone Interviews Vladimir Putin (NewYork: Hot Books, 2017), p. 149 (important elements).

61

Vagit Alekperov, Oil of Russia: Past, Present and Future (Minneapolis: East View Press, 2011), p. 98 (breadbasket), p. 128.

62

Alekperov, Oil of Russia, pp. 173-74 (fuel crisis).

63

Alekperov, Oil of Russia, p. 252.

64

Yegor Gaidar, The Soviet Collapse: Grain and Oil, American Enterprise Institute, April 2007 (timeline).

65

Interview with Mikhail Gorbachev; Yegor Gaidar, Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2007), p. 165 (no national economy).

66

Serhii Plokhy, The Last Empire: The Final Days of the Soviet Union (London: One World, 2014), pp. 303-10, 367, 377.

67

Interview with Yegor Gaidar (chudo). On the Wild 90s and the Russian oil industry, see Thane Gustafson, Wheel of Fortune: The Battle for Oil and Power in Russia (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2012), chapters 2-5.

68

1991. . .

69

Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy, Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2015), pp. 107-15, 181-83; Angela Stent, Putins World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest (NewYork: Twelve, 2019), p. 4 (judoist), pp. 83-86; Stent, Limits of Partnership, pp. 4, 85-86.

70

Interview.

71

Paul R. Magosci, A History of Ukraine: The Land and Its Peoples (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2010), pp. 72-73; Serhii Plokhy, The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine (NewYork: Basic Books, 2015), p. 167.

72

Serhii Plokhy and M. E. Sarotte, The Shoals of Illusion, Foreign Affairs, November 22, 2019 (born nuclear); Steven Pifer, The Budapest Memorandum and U.S. Obligations, Brookings Institution, December 4, 2014.

73

Thane Gustafson, The Bridge: Natural Gas in a Redivided Europe (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2020), chapter 9.

74

Serhii Plokhy, The Gates of Europe, pp. 333-34; Angela Stent, The Limits of Partnership: US-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2014), chapter 5; Samuel Charap and Timothy J. Colton, Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia (NewYork: Routledge, 2017), p. 89 (direct threat).

75

Jonathan Stern, The Russian-Ukrainian Gas Crisis of January 2006, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, January 16, 2006 (one-third); Beginning of Meeting on Economic Issues, Kremlin, December 8, 2005; http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/23321; Thane Gustafson and Matthew Sagers, Gas Transit Through Ukraine: The Struggle for Ukraines Crown Jewels, CERA, 2003.

76

Condoleezza Rice, Remarks at the State Department Correspondents Breakfast, January 5, 2006; Jonathan Stern, The Russian-Ukrainian Gas Crisis.

77

Simon Blakey and Thane Gustafson, Russian-Ukrainian Gas: Why Its Different This Time, CERA, 2009 (Putin).

78

Thane Gustafson and Simon Blakey, Its Not Over Till Its Over: The Russian-Ukrainian Gas Crisis in Perspective, CERA, 2009.

79

Official Launch of Construction of Nord Stream, press release, April 9, 2010 (long-term goals); Thane Gustafson, The Bridge: Natural Gas in a Redivided Europe (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2020), p. 372 (priority); Gerrit Wiesmann, Russia-EU Gas Pipeline, Financial Times, November 8, 2011 (temptation and exclusive); Isabel Gorst and Neil Buckley, Russia Opens $10bn Nord Stream, Financial Times, September 6, 2011 (civilized).

80

European Commission, Third Energy Package, https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/markets-and-consumers/market-legislation/third-energy-package.

81

German Federal Court of Auditors, 2016 Report Implementation of Energy Transition, December 21, 2016, www.bundesrechnungshof.de/en/veroeffentichungen/products/beratungsberichte/sammlung/2016-report-implementation-of-energy-transition.

82

Angela Stent, From Embargo to Ostpolitik: The Political Economy of West German-Soviet Relations, 1955-1980 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981), p. 69 (drown us); Edwin L. Dale, Soviet Oil Feeds Dispute in the West, NewYork Times, June 5, 1961; Raymond P. Brandt, Oil a New Soviet Weapon in Economic and Political Offensive Against West, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, June 4, 1961.

83

Charles Moore, Margaret Thatcher: The Authorized Biography, vol. 1, From Grantham to the Falklands (NewYork: Knopf, 2013), pp. 578-79 (Reagan).

84

Moore, Margaret Thatcher, p. 584; Gustafson, The Bridge, p. 160; George Shultz, Turmoil and Triumph: Diplomacy, Power, and the Victory of the American Ideal (NewYork: Charles Scribners Sons, 1993), p. 140. (wasting asset), p. 89.

85

Edward J. Epstein, How America Lost Its Secrets (NewYork: Vintage, 2017), pp. 143-44 (Putin); Angela Stent, The Limits of Partnership: US-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2014) p. 270.

86

Stent, The Limits of Partnership, pp. 219, 270 (slouch), 293 (regional power).

87

Jeffrey Goldberg, The Obama Doctrine, Atlantic, April 2016 (core); James Marson, Putin to the West, Time, May 25, 2009 (Big Russia).

88

Oliver Stone, The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone Interviews Vladimir Putin (NewYork: Hot Books, 2017) p. 65 (signal).

89

Mark Kramer, Why Did Russia Give Away Crimea, May 19, 2014, Cold War International History Project e-Dossier No. 47; William Taubman, Khrushchev: The Man and His Era (NewYork: Norton, 2003), chapters 9 and 10.

90

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, Evolution of Sanctions and Lessons for the Future, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., March 30, 2016; Ministry of Justice and Security, Government of the Netherlands, Decision on Prosecution MH17, Letter to Parliament, June 19, 2019.

91

Lew, Evolution of Sanctions; Jacob Lew and Richard Nephew, The Use and Misuse of Economic Statecraft, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2018.

92

U.S. Geological Survey, Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle, 2008; Russia Plants Flag Under N Pole, BBC News, August 2, 2007.

93

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States, June 2013, table 4, p. 8; Timothy Gardner, Exxon Winds Down Drilling, Reuters, September 19, 2014; Jack Farchy, Gazprom Neft Strives to Go It Alone, Financial Times, January 3, 2017.

94

, . . .

95

Interview with Alexei Kudrin.

96

International Monetary Fund, Russian Federation: 2019 Article IV Consultation Staff Report, August 2019.

97

Donald Tusk, A United Europe Can End Russias Energy Stranglehold, Financial Times, April 21, 2014; Maroš Šefčovič. Nord Stream II Energy Union at the Crossroads, Brussels, April 6, 2016; Germany to Back Nord Stream 2 Despite Ukraine Tensions, EURACTIV.com with Reuters, December 4, 2018 (commercial project); Thane Gustafson, The Bridge: Natural Gas in a Redivided Europe, (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2020), chapter 12.

98

Sally Yates and James Clapper Testify on Russian Election Interference, Washington Post, May 8, 2017; Ben Smiths Blog, Hillary: Putin Doesnt Have a Soul, Politico, January 6, 2008; Michael Crowley and Julia Ioffe, Why Putin Hates Hillary, Politico, July 25, 2016.

99

Polina Nikolskaya, Russias Largest Oil Producer Says New US Sanctions Are Going to Backfire, Business Insider, August 3, 2017.

100

Statement by President Donald J. Trump on Signing the Countering Americas Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, August 2, 2017.

101

Gustafson, The Bridge, p. 411.

102

Elena Mazneva, Patrick Donahue, and Anna Shiryaevskaya, Germany, Austria Tell U.S. Not to Interfere, Bloomberg, June 15, 2017 (energy supply and try to favor); Alissa de Carbonnel and Vera Eckert, EU Stalls Russian Gas Pipeline, Reuters, March 21, 2017.

103

Wolfgang Ischinger, Why Europeans Oppose the Russian Sanctions Bill, Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2017; Andrew Rettman, Merkel: Nord Stream 2 Is Political, EUobserver, April 11, 2018; United States Senate Letter to Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin and Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan, March 15, 2018; CNBC, July 11, 2018 (totally controlled); Steven Erlanger and Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Trump vs. Merkel, NewYork Times, July 11, 2018; Tom DiChristopher, Behind Nord Stream 2, CNBC, July 11, 2018; Trump and Juncker Agree, CNBC, July 25, 2018.

104

European Commission Fact Sheet, Liquefied Natural Gas and Gas Storage Will Boost EUs Energy Security, February 16, 2016; Groningen, Field Summary Report, IHS Markit, February 2020.

105

Andrius Sytas and Nerijus Adomaitis, Lithuania Installs LNG Terminal to End Dependence on Russian Gas, Daily Mail, October 27, 2014.

106

Association of Gas Producers of Ukraine, http://agpu.org.ua/en/.

107

Gregory Meyer, Ed Crooks, David Sheppard, and Andrew Ward, Gas from Russian Arctic to Warm Homes in Boston, Financial Times, January 22, 2018; www.markey.senate.gov/news/press-releases/senator-markey-calls-for-greater-scrutiny-of-lng-shipments-from-russia-to-the-united-states.

108

Henry Foy, Russias Novatek Shows Resilience, Financial Times, August 1, 2018.

109

John Webb and Stanislav Yazynin, Russias Northern Sea Route, IHS Energy, April 2015.

110

Sagers etal., Russias New LNG Strategy; Foy, Russias LNG Ambitions (confirmation).

111

Merkel Sees No End to EU Sanctions, Reuters, August 19, 2016; James Henderson and Tatiana Mitrova, Energy Relations Between Russia and China: Playing Chess with the Dragon, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, August 2016; Sergei Karaganov, Global Tendencies and Russian Policies, Russia in Global Affairs, February 13, 2016 (rosy dreams); Press Statement Following Russian-Chinese Talks, Kremlin, May 20, 2014, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/21047; Angela Stent, Putins World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest (NewYork: Twelve, 2019), p. 103 (own world); Angela Stent, The Limits of Partnership: US-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2014).

112

. . .

113

Bobo Lo, Russia and the New World Disorder (London: Chatham House, 2015), p. 133 (pivot to the east); transcript of Putin conversation with Lionel Barber and Henry Foy, Financial Times, June 27, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/878d2344-98f0-11e9-9573-ee5cbb98ed36 (eggs).

114

Brian Spegele, Wayne Ma, and Gregory L. White, Russia and China Agree, Wall Street Journal, May 21, 2014; Replies to Journalists Questions Following a Visit to China, Kremlin, May 21, 2014, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/21064.

115

Erica Downs, Chinas Quest for Oil Self-Sufficiency in the 1960s, unpublished manuscript, 2001 (scabs).

116

- , , , , , . . .

117

Press Statements Following Russian-Chinese Talks, Kremlin, May 8, 2015, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/49433 (key partner); Cheang Ming, Best Time in History for China-Russia Relationship, CNBC, July 4, 2017; Putin: Outside Interference in South China Sea Dispute Will Do Only Harm, Reuters, September 5, 2016; Nikolai Novichkov and James Hardy, Russia Ready to Supply Standard Su-3s, Janes, November 25, 2014; Alexander Gabuev, China and Russia: Friends with Strategic Benefits, Carnegie, April 7, 2017; Russia-China Military Ties at All-Time High, RT, November 23, 2016.

118

Oliver Stone, The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone Interviews Vladimir Putin (NewYork: Hot Books, 2017), p. 90 (global leadership).

119

Dragoș Tîrnoveanu, Russia, China and the Far East Question, The Diplomat, January 20, 2016.

120

Pancake Diplomacy, The Week, September 12, 2018.

121

Halford Mackinder, The Geographical Pivot of History, Geographical Journal 23, no. 4 (April 1904), pp. 421-37.

122

Dan Morgan and David B. Ottaway, Azerbaijans Riches Alter the Chessboard, Washington Post, October 4, 1998 major goal and real country.

123

Daniel Yergin, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World (NewYork: Penguin, 2011), chapters 2 and 3; Amy Myers Jaffe and Robert A. Manning, The Myth of the Caspian Great Game: The Real Geopolitics of Energy, Survival 40, no. 4 (Winter 1998-99), p. 116 (Richardson).

124

Georgi Gotev, Kazakhstans Transition, EURACTIV.com, April 24, 2019.

125

Plenary Session of St Petersburg International Economic Forum, Kremlin, June 7, 2019, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60707; Radina Gigova, Xi Gets Russian Ice Cream from Best and Bosom Friend, CNN, June 17, 2019.

126

Power of Siberia pipeline ceremony, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzafjfHkxPk; Anna Galtsova, Jenny Yang, and Sofia Galas, Power of Siberia: Upcoming Debut to the China Gas Market, IHS Markit, November 25, 2019; Putin speech March 10, 2020: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62964; TheEconomist, March 10, 2020.

127

Congressional Research Service, U.S-China Investment Ties, August 28, 2019, and U.S.-China Trade and Economic Relations, January 29, 2020; NAFSA: Association of International Educators (Chinese university students).

128

Bill Clinton, My Life (NewYork: Vintage, 2005), p. 922; Bill Clinton, Speech, Johns Hokins SAIS, Washington, D.C., March 9, 2000.

129

Jacqueline Varas, Trade Policy Under President Trump, American Action Forum, Insight, December 13, 2016.

130

Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydidess Trap? (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017); Xi Jinpings Speech on China-U.S. Relations in Seattle, Beijing Review, September 23, 2015.

131

The author of The China Dream, Colonel Liu Mingfu, proposes a hundred year marathon in which China will become preeminent. That became the title for Michael Pillsburys influential book The Hundred-Year Marathon: Chinas Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower (NewYork: St. Martins Griffin, 2016. Also, Michael Fabey, Crashback: The Power Clash Between the U.S. and China in the Pacific (NewYork: Scribner, 2017), p. 59; Minghao Zhao, Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Chinese Perspectives on US-China Strategic Competition, Chinese Journal of International Politics 12, no. 3 (2019), p. 374 (capitalist world and coequal).

132

Allison, Destined for War, p. 13.

133

IHS Markit AutoInsight.

134

Nicholas Eberstadt, With Great Demographics Comes Great Power, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2019; Nicholas Eberstadt, Chinas Demographic Outlook to 2040 and Its Implications, American Enterprise Institute, January 2019.

135

Xi Wants High-Tech Fighting Force, China Daily, May 1, 2018; Military expenditure by country, SIPRI, 2019; The U.S. China Military Scorecard, RAND Corporation, 2015; Elbridge Colby, How to Win Americas Next War, Foreign Policy, May 5, 2019 (wide variety); Janes, Chinas Advanced Weapons Systems, May 12, 2018. That report quotes a Chinese work, The Science of Military Strategy: The war we need to prepare for is a large-scale, and highly intensive local war from the sea (p. 8).

136

Michael Gordon, Marines Plan to Retool to Meet China Threat, Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2020; David H. Berger, Force Design, United States Marine Corps, March 2020 (great power/peer level), p. 2.

137

President Xi Jinpings Keynote Speech, China Daily, May 14, 2017.

138

Interview with James Stavridis; Allison, Destined for War, p. 150 (tension); Robert D. Kaplan, scholar of geography and geopolitics, describes the South China Sea as now a principal node of global power politics, critical to the preservation of the worldwide balance of power. Robert D. Kaplan, Asias Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific (NewYork: Random House, 2015), p. 49.

139

Centre des Archives Diplomatiques du Ministère de lEurope et des Affaires Étrangères, 32 CPCOM/79, ASIE1930-1940, CHINE, E513-0 sd/e 749.

140

Monique Chemillier-Gendreau, Sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly Islands (Cambridge, MA: Kluwer Law International, 2000), pp. 226-27 (quirks of geology); Clive Schofield and Ian Storey, The South China Sea Dispute: Increasing Stakes and Rising Tension (Washington, D.C.: Jamestown Foundation: 2009), p. 11 (Dangerous Ground); David Hancox and Victor Prescott, A Geographical Description of the Spratly Islands and an Account of Hydrographic Surveys Amongst Those Islands, International Boundaries Research Unit, Maritime Briefing, vol. 1, no. 6 (1995), p. 38 (mariners guarantee); Stein Tonnesson, The South China Sea in the Age of European Decline, Modern Asian Studies 40 (2006), pp. 1-57, 3 (Europe-dominated waters).

141

Centre des Archives Diplomatiques du Ministère de lEurope et des Affaires Étrangères, 32 CPCOM/79, ASIE1930-1940, CHINE, E513-0 sd/e 749.

142

How Much Trade Transits the South China Sea? China Power, Project CSIS, October 10, 2019 (world trade); Schofield and Storey, South China Sea Dispute, p. 9 (tuna); Alan Dupont, Maritime Disputes in the South China Sea: ASEANs Dilemma, Perspectives on the South China Sea, ed. Murray Hiebert, Phuong Nguyen, and Gregory Poling (Washington, D.C.: CSIS, 2014), p. 46 (strategic commodity); Ian Storey, Disputes in the South China Sea: Southeast Asias Troubled Waters, Politique Étrangère 79, no. 3 (2014), p. 11 (entire world).

143

Chemillier-Gendreau, Sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly, pp. 205-6, 210-11 (megalomania); Bill Hayton, The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia (New Haven Yale University Press, 2014), pp. 54-55 (navy is weak).

144

State Council, White Paper on South China Sea, July 2016, english.www.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2016/07/13/content_281475392503075.htm (9 Islets); Henry Kissinger, On China (NewYork: Penguin, 2011); Hayton, The South China Sea, p. 55 (mapmakers). On the unequal treaties, Denis Twitchett and John K. Fairbank, The Cambridge History of China, vol. 10, Late Ching, 1800-1911, Part 1 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1978), chapter 5.

145

State Council, White Paper on South China Sea, http://english.www.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2016/07/13/content_281475392503075.htm (reviewed and approved); Peter A. Dutton, Through a Chinese Lens, Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute 136, no. 4 (April 2010), p. 25; Zou Keyuan, The Chinese Traditional Maritime Boundary Line in the South China Sea and Its Legal Consequences for the Resolution of the Dispute over the Spratly Islands, International Journal of Maritime and Coastal Law 14, no. 1 (1999), p. 33; Hayton, The South China Sea, p. 56 (Loving the nation); William Callahan, The Cartography of National Humiliation and the Emergence of Chinas Geobody, Public Culture vol. 21, issue 1, Winter 2009, p. 154 (common people); Spratlys Spratly Islands (Nansha Islands) of China, www.spratlys.org/islands-names/1935.htm (chronology of maps). On Bai Meichu and the Journal of Geographical Studies, see Pei-yin Lin and Weipin Tsai, Print, Profit, and Perception: Ideas, Information and Knowledge in Chinese Societies, 1895-1949 (Leiden: Brill, 2014), pp. 105-11, and Brian Moloughney and Peter Zarrow, eds., Transforming Society: The Making of a Modern Academic Discipline in Twentieth Century China (Hong Kong: Chinese University of Hong Kong Press, 2011), pp. 310-17, 331-32 (more patriotic).

146

Tonnesson, The South China Sea in the Age of European Decline, p. 29.

147

Philip Short, Mao: A Life (NewYork: Henry Holt, 2000), pp. 418-420 (stood up); Zheng Wang, The Nine-Dashed Line: Engraved in our Hearts, The Diplomat, August 25, 2014.

148

Position Paper of the Government of the Peoples Republic of China on the Matter of Jurisdiction in the South Sea Arbitration Initiated by the Republic of the Philippines, December 7, 2014.

149

Zhiguo Gao and Bing Bing Jia, The Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea: History, Status, and Implications, American Journal of International Law 107, no. 1 (January 2013), p. 101; Bill Hayton, The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia (New Haven Yale University Press, 2014), pp. 24-26; Florian Dupuy and Pierre-Marie Dupuy, A Legal Analysis of Chinas Historic Rights Claim in the South China, American Journal of International Law 107, no. 1 (January 2013), pp. 124, 136-41; Robert Beckman, The UN Convention of the Law of the Sea and the Maritime Disputes in the South China Sea, American Journal of International Law 107, no. 1 (January 2013), p. 143; U.S. Department of State, Limits in the Seas: Maritime Claims in the South China Sea, December 5, 2014, p. 9.

150

The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS in Washington for information and maps on the South China Sea: https://amti.csis.organd; https://amti.csis.org/island-tracker/china/; David E. Sanger and Rick Gladstone, Piling Sand in a Disputed Sea, NewYork Times, April 8, 2015 (facts on the water).

151

U.S. Department of State, Limits in the Seas, pp. 16, 19; Zhiguo Gao and Bing Bing Jia, The Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea, p. 102; Dupuy and Dupuy, A Legal Analysis of Chinas Historic Rights Claim, p. 139.

152

Interview with Robert Beckman.

153

Jeff Himmelman, A Game of Shark and Minnow, NewYork Times Magazine, October 27, 2013; Ben Blanchard, Duterte Aligns Philippines, Reuters, October 20, 2016. Chinas historical chronology in State Council, Peoples Republic of China, China Adheres to the Position of Settling Through Negotiation the Relevant Disputes Between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, July 2016; State Council, White Paper on South China Sea, July 2016, http://english.www.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2016/07/13/content_281475392503075.htm (illegal claim).

154

Interviews with Robert Beckman and Antonio Carpio.

155

Shih Hsiu-Chuan, Ma Addresses Nations Role in S China Sea, Taipei Times, September 2, 2014; Joining the Dashes, The Economist, October 4, 2014.

156

Ezra Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2013); Richard Baum, Burying Mao: Chinese Politics in the Age of Deng Xiaoping (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994); Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy (NewYork: Touchstone, 2002), p. 197.

157

Bill Hayton, The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014), pp. 28, 121 (not wise enough).

158

Carlyle A. Thayer, Recent Developments in the South China Sea: Implications for Peace, Stability, and Cooperation in the Region, South China Sea Studies, March 24, 2011, p. 3; U.S. Department of State, Limits in the Seas; Tran Truong Thuy and Le Thuy Trang, Power, Law, and Maritime Order in the South China Sea (Lanham: Lexington Books, 2015), pp. 103-15.

159

Interviews; Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hard Choices (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 2014), p. 79; Edward Wong, Chinese Military Seeks to Extend Its Naval Power, NewYork Times, July 23, 2010.

160

Interview with Tommy Koh.

161

Louise Levathes, When China Ruled the Seas: The Treasure Fleet of the Dragon Throne, 1405-1433 (NewYork: Oxford University Press, 1994), pp. 170, 88, 20; Geoff Wade, The Zheng He Voyages: A Reassessment, Journal of the Malaysian Branch of the Royal Asiatic Society 78, no. 1 (2005), pp. 37-58; Valerie Hansen, The Open Empire: A History of China to 1800 (NewYork: Norton, 2015), pp. 352-60.

162

Michael Fabey, Crashback: The Power Clash Between the U.S. and China in the Pacific (NewYork: Scribner, 2017), p. 65; Joseph Kahn, China Has an Ancient Mariner to Tell You About, NewYork Times, July 20, 2005.

163

Kurt Campbell, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia (NewYork: Twelve, 2016), pp. 185-87; Patrick E. Tyler, China Warns U.S. to Keep Away from Taiwan Strait, NewYork Times, March 18, 1996.

164

Peng Yining, Sea Change, China Daily, September 24, 2014; Jeremy Page, As China Expands Its Navy, Wall Street Journal, March 30, 2015.

165

Henry Kissinger, On China (NewYork: Penguin, 2011), pp. 514-27.

166

H.C. Ling, The Petroleum Industry of the Peoples Republic of China (Palo Alto, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1975).

167

Far Eastern Economic Review, February 2004 (Malacca Dilemma).

168

Xizhou Zhou, Battle for the Blue Skies: How Chinas Anti-Smog Campaign Triggered a Natural Gas Crisis and a Switch to Clean Coal, IHS Markit, March 15, 2018; Jenny Yang and Xiaomin Liu, The Battle for the Blue Sky Continues, IHS Markit, July 9, 2018.

169

In High Seas, China Moves Unilaterally, NewYork Times, May 8, 2014; John Ruwitch and Nguyen Phuong Ling, Chinese Oil Rig Moved Away, Reuters, July 16, 2014 (bowed); China, Vietnam to Address Maritime Disputes Without Using Megaphone Diplomacy: Xinhua, Reuters, December 27, 2014; Khanh Vu, Chinese Ship Leaves Vietnams Waters, Reuters, October 24, 2019; Carl Thayer, A Difficult Summer in the South China Sea, The Diplomat, November 2019.

170

Dylan Mair and Rachel Calvert, Energy Drivers for Offshore Cooperation, revised 2019, IHS Markit, unpublished; U.S. Energy Information Administration, South China Sea, February 7, 2013; U.S. EIA, Contested Areas of South China Sea Likely Have Few Conventional Oil and Gas Resources, April 3, 2013; Lee Hsien Loong, The Endangered Asian Century, Foreign Affairs, July-August 2020, p. 59.

171

Arthur Donovan and Joseph Bonney, The Box That Changed the World: Fifty Years of Container Shipping (East Windsor: Commonwealth Business Media, 2006), p. 46 (most consequential); Marc Levinson, The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006), p. 15 (no engine); Peter Drucker, Innovation and Entrepreneurship, www.academia.edu/38623791/Innovation_and_entrepreneurship_-_Peter_F_Drucker, p. 31.

172

Journal of Commerce, June 3, 2001; Donovan and Bonney, The Box, pp. 51-52 (We are convinced), p. 97 (thievery); Levinson, The Box, p. 165.

173

IHS Markit PIERS and IHS World Trade Service (container ports); Journal of Commerce, June 3, 2001; Donovan and Bonney, The Box, p. 177.

174

Sarah Raine and Christian Le Mière, Regional Disorder: The South China Sea Dispute (NewYork: Routledge, 2013), p. 167 (power politics).

175

Interview with Bilahari Kausikan.

176

Xi Jinping, China-US Ties, China Daily, September 24, 2015. Xi Jinping, The Governance of China (Beijing: Foreign Language Press, 2014), pp. 479-80.

177

Xi Jinping, Achieving Rejuvenation Is the Dream of the Chinese People, Governance of China, pp. 37-39; Xi Pledges Great Renewal of Chinese Nation, Peoples Daily, November 30, 2012; Edward Wong, Signals of a More Open Economy in China, NewYork Times, December 9, 2012.

178

Elizabeth C. Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State (NewYork: Oxford University Press, 2018); Xi Jinping, Speech, at the National Peoples Congress, China Daily, March 22, 2018; Xi Jinping Promises More Assertive Chinese Foreign Policy, Financial Times, March 20, 2018 (east wind).

179

Leave Immediately: US Navy Plane Warned over South China Sea, CNN, August 24, 2018, www.stltoday.com/news/world/leave-immediately-us-navy-plane-warned-over-south-china-sea/article_fcb06c65-9775-5f07-b3d9-bfa4cea0a28d.

180

Michael R. Pompeo, Americas Indo-Pacific Economic Vision, Remarks at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C., July 30, 2018; Joe Gould, U.S. Senate Panel Sets Sights, Defense News, June 6, 2018.

181

: , , , , , , , , .

182

Interview with Tommy Koh.

183

Interview with Chan Heng Chee.

184

Interview; Adam P. Liff and G. John Ickenberry, Racing Toward Tragedy?: Chinas Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma, International Security 39, no. 2 (Fall 2014), p. 78.

185

Liff and Ickenberry, Racing Toward Tragedy? p. 72 (Rudd); interview with Peter Ho (distracted); Council on Foreign Relations, Conflict in the South China Sea: Contingency Planning Memorandum Update; Interview (hostage).

186

Defusing the South China Sea Disputes: A Regional Blueprint (Washington, D.C.: CSIS, 2018); Raine and Le Mière, Regional Disorder, pp. 179-214; Bonnie Glaser, A Step Forward in U.S. China Military Ties: Two CBM Agreements, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, November 11, 2014.

187

Interview with Yoriko Kawaguchi; Yoji Koda, Japans Perspectives on U.S. Policy Toward the South China Sea, in Perspectives on the South China Sea, ed. Murray Hiebert, Phuong Nguyen, and Gregory Poling (Washington, D.C.: CSIS, 2014), pp. 85-87; Ian Storey and Lin Cheng-yi, The South China Sea Dispute: Navigating Diplomatic and Strategic Tensions (Singapore: ISEAS, 2016), p. 5 (Abe).

188

Jacqueline Varas, Trade Policy Under President Trump, American Action Forum, Insight, December 13, 2016; Thomas Franck, Trump Doubles Down: Trade Wars Are Good, and Easy to Win, CNBC, March 2, 2018.

189

Kurt M. Campbell and Jake Sulivan, Competition without Catastrophe: How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist with China, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2019; Michael D. Swaine, Chinese Views on the U.S. National Security and National Defense Strategies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 1, 2018 (unprecedented); China in U.S. National Security Strategy Reports, 1987-2017, USC U.S. China Institute, December 18, 2017, https://china.usc.edu/china-us-national-security-strategy-reports-1987-2017 (previous presidents); Susan Thornton, Is American Diplomacy with China Dead? Foreign Service Journal, July-August 2019; David Shambaugh, U.S. China Rivalry in Southeast Asia, International Security, Spring 2018, p. 88.

190

National Security Strategy of the United States, December 2017.

191

Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America.

192

Remarks by Secretary Esper in a Joint Press Conference with Senior Afghan Officials and Resolute Support Mission Commander, https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/1994448/remarks-by-secretary-esper-in-a-joint-press-conference-with-senior-afghan-offic/; Discussion (asleep).

193

Vice President Pence on the Administrations Policy Toward China, Hudson Institute, Washington, D.C., October 4, 2018.

194

, . , -. . .

195

State Council, Peoples Republic of China, Chinas National Defense in the New Era, July 2019, english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.html; China Warns of War in Case of Move Towards Taiwan Independence, CNBC, July 23, 2019 (Wu Qian).

196

Anthony H. Cordesman, Chinas New 2019 Defense White Paper, CSIS, July 24, 2019; interview. interview; National Security Council, White House Strategic Approach to the Peoples Republic, May 26, 2020.

197

Elsa B. Kania, Made in China 2025, Explained, The Diplomat, February 1, 2019; Pence, Administrations Policy Toward China.

198

Huawei Is at the Centre of Political Controversy, The Economist, April 27, 2019; Robert Zoellick, Can America and China Be Stakeholders? December 4, 2019 (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace); also, Robert Zoellick, The China Challenge, The National Interest, February 2020.

199

Xi Jinping, Work Together to Build the Silk Road Economic Belt, in Xi Jinping, The Governance of China (Beijing: Foreign Language Press, 2014), pp. 315-19.

200

Craig Benjamin, Empires of Ancient Eurasia: The First Silk Roads Era, 100 BCE 250 CE (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018), p. 144; Valerie Hansen, The Silk Road: A New History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012), pp. 5-8, plate 2 (von Richthofen and his map).

201

Hansen, The Silk Road, pp. 14-16 (wrapping).

202

Xi Jinping, Speech to Indonesian Parliament, Jakarta, October 2, 2013.

203

Nadège Rolland, Chinas Eurasian Century, National Bureau of Asian Research, May 23, 2017, p. 51.

204

. . .

205

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunyings Remarks on the U.S. House of Representatives Passing the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act of 2019, December 4, 2019; Jonathan D. Pollack and Jeffrey A. Bader, Looking Before We Leap: Weighing the Risks of US-China Disengagement, Brookings Foreign Policy Brief, July 2019; Lindsay Maizland; Lucy Hornsby, Chinese Official Defends Mass Incarceration of Uighurs, Financial Times, March 12, 2019; Steven Lee Myers, China Defends Crackdown on Muslims, and Criticizes Times Article, November 18, 2019 (fakery); Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Myunhee Lee, and Emir Yazici, Counterterrorism and Preventative Repression: Chinas Changing Strategy on Xinjiang, International Security, Winter 2019/2020, pp. 9-47.

206

Evan Osnos, Making China Great Again, NewYorker, January 8, 2018 (Marshall Plan).

207

Interview with Bilahari Kausikan; Kurt Campbell, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia (NewYork: Twelve, 2016), chapter 1.

208

Rolland, Chinas Eurasian Century, p. 96 (strategic hinterland), p. 46 (western values); interview.

209

Erich Schwartzel, Chinas Hollywood Challenge, Wall Street Journal, December 28, 2017; Rolland, Chinas Eurasian Century, p. 191; Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, www.aiib.org/en/index.html.

210

Interview; Panama President Cheers Chinas Belt and Road Initiative, AP News, April 2, 2019; IHS Markit, Which Countries Are in Chinas Belt and Road Initiative? May 2019.

211

Rolland, Chinas Eurasian Century, pp. 84, 82, 87; Stefan Reidy, The New Silk Road: What Should Shippers of Goods Expect from the New Era of TransEurasian Freight Forwarding, Arviem, October 3, 2017.

212

Interview (financially sound).

213

Chinas Super Link to Gwadar Port, South China Morning Post, https://multimedia.scmp.com/news/china/article/One-Belt-One-Road/pakistan.html.

214

Jeremy Page and Saeed Shah, Chinas Global Building Spree, Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2018; Saeed Shah and Bill Spindle, U.S. Seeks to Avoid a Pakistan Bailout, Wall Street Journal, July 31, 2018 (bail out); International Monetary Fund, IMF Executive Board Approves US$6 Billion 39-Month EFF Arrangement for Pakistan, July 3, 2019.

215

Christine Lagarde, Belt and Road Initiative: Strategies to Deliver in the Next Phase, IMF-PBC Conference, Beijing, April 17, 2018; Maria Abi-Habib, How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port, NewYork Times, June 25, 2018; Matt Ferchen and Anarkale Perera, Why Unsustainable Chinese Deals Are a Two-Way Street, Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, July 23, 2019.

216

Amanda Erickson, Malaysia Cancels Two Big Chinese Projects, Washington Post, August 21, 2018; Lucy Horby, Mahathir Mohamad Warns Against New Colonialism, Financial Times, August 20, 2018.

217

Ministry of Finance, Peoples Republic of China, Debt Sustainability Framework for Participating Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative, April 25, 2019; IHS Markit, Changing Role of Chinese Lending, August 2019; Gordon, Tong, and Anderson, Realistic Assessment of Chinas Belt and Road, pp. 11-15.

218

Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Ports and Partnerships: Delhi Invests in Indian Ocean Leadership, https://amti.csis.org/ports-and-partnerships-delh-invests-in-indian-ocean-leadership/; Harsh V. Pant, India Challenges Chinas Belt-Road Intentions, Yale Global Online, June 22, 2017; Dhruva Jaishankar, Acting East: India in the Indo-Pacific, Brookings India, October 2019, pp. 4, 11 (deep distrust).

219

. . .

220

Missy Ryan, Islamic State Threat, Reuters, August 21, 2014.

221

Roger Adelson, Mark Sykes: Portrait of an Amateur (London: Jonathan Cape, 1975); Christopher Simon Sykes, The Man Who Created the Middle East: A Story of Empire, Conflict, and the Sykes-Picot Agreement (London: William Collins, 2017); James Barr, A Line in the Sand: Britain, France, and the Struggle That Shaped the Middle East (NewYork: Norton, 2012), pp. 7 (Mad Mullah), p. 15 (young).

222

David Fromkin, A Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East (NewYork: Henry Holt, 2009), p. 149 (cease to be); Barr, A Line in the Sand, p. 13 (French endeavours), p. 67 (Crusades).

223

Fromkin, A Peace to End All Peace, p. 141 (hornets nest), pp. 103, 192; Sean McMeekin argues that it should be called the Sazanov-Sykes-Picot agreement because of the role of Russian foreign minister Sergei Sazanov in defining Russias imperial objectives for the partition of the Ottoman Empire. The Ottoman Endgame: War, Revolution, and the Making of the Modern Middle East 1908-1923 (NewYork: Penguin, 2016), pp. 286-89.

224

Bruce Masters, The Arabs of the Ottoman Empire, 1516-1918: A Social and Cultural History (NewYork: Cambridge University Press, 2013), p. 181 (ethnic lines).

225

Scott Anderson, Lawrence in Arabia: War, Deceit, Imperial Folly and the Making of the Modern Middle East (London: Anchor Books, 2014), chapter 7; Barr, A Line in the Sand, p. 18 (Mecca 1).

226

Balfour Declaration, November 2, 1917; Mark Tessler, A History of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, 2nd ed. (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2009), p. 153 (Handsome as a picture); Isaiah Friedman, Palestine, a Twice-Promised Land (Abingdon: Routledge, 2017), p. 220 (cousins by blood); Chaim Weizmann, Trial and Error: Autobiography (NewYork: Harper, 1949).

227

Barr, A Line in the Sand, p. 57 (oil report); V. H. Rothwell, Mesopotamia in British War Aims, 1914-1918, The Historical Journal 13, no. 2 (1970), pp. 289-90.

228

Adelson, Mark Sykes, pp. 294-95; Sykes, The Man Who Created the Middle East, pp. 324-30.

229

Margaret Macmillan, Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World (NewYork: Random House, 2003), p. 396 (dogfight, greatest oil-field), chapters 8 and 27.

230

Macmillan, Paris 1919, pp. 397-98; Lady Bell, ed., The Letters of Gertrude Bell (London: Ernest Benn, 1927), p. 620 (anthem).

231

Ali A. Allawi, Faisal of Iraq (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014), p. 538.

232

Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypts Liberation: The Philosophy of the Revolution (Cairo, 1958); Said K. Aburish, Nasser: The Last Arab (London: Duckworth, 2004), p. 25 (Arab defeat); Anas Alahmed, Voice of the Arabs Radio: Its Effects and Political Power During the Nasser Era (1953-1967), March 12, 2011, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2047212.

233

Michael Oren, Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East (NewYork: Ballantine, 2003), p. 93; Jesse Ferris, Nassers Gamble: How Intervention in Yemen Caused the Six-Day War and the Decline of Egyptian Power (Princeton Princeton University Press, 2013).

234

Ray Takeyh, Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 133; Irans Supreme Leader Calls the Saudi Leaders Idiots, DW, May 28, 2017, www.dw.com/en/irans-supreme-leader-calls-the-saudi-leaders-idiots/a-39013367; Imam Khameneis Hajj Message2016.

235

Jeffrey Goldberg, Saudi Crown Prince: Irans Supreme Leader, Atlantic, April 2, 2018; Mohammed bin Salman interview with Time, April 5, 2018.

236

Albert Hourani, A History of the Arab Peoples (London: Faber & Faber, 2005), pp. 30-37; Ira M. Lapidus, A History of Islamic Societies (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014), pp. 66-69; Pew Research Center, Forum on Religion & Public Life, Mapping the Global Muslim Population, October 2009, Muslims, December 18, 2012.

237

William Shawcross, The Shahs Last Ride (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 1988), p. 179 (megalomaniac).

238

Richard Falk, Trusting Khomeini, NewYork Times, February 16, 1979 (humane governance); Ervand Abrahamian, A History of Modern Iran (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), pp. 163-64 (powers unimagined); Kim Ghattas, Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Five Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East (NewYork: Henry Holt, 2020), chapters 1, 2, and 4 (on how Khomeini made his way to power).

239

Pierre Razoux, The Iran-Iraq War (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2015), p. 2; Suzanne Maloney, Irans Political Economy Since the Revolution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015), chapter 4.

240

Steve Coll, Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001 (NewYork: Penguin, 2005), chapter 2.

241

Coll, Ghost Wars, chapter 2; Stuart Eizenstat, President Carter: The White House Years (NewYork: St. Martins Press, 2018), pp. 653-54 (sermon and doctrine).

242

Saddam Hussein Talks to the FBI: Interviews and Conversations with High Value Detainee #1, Session 3, in 2004, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 279, Posted July 1, 2009; Foreign Relations of the United States 1977-80, Volume XVIII, no. 139; Pierre Razoux, The Iran-Iraq War (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2015), pp. 7-8 (One moment).

243

Williamson Murray and Kevin M. Woods, The Iran-Iraq War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014), p. 36 (satanic turbans), p. 41 (blasphemy), p. 45 (chaos), p. 65 (disintegration); Pierre Razoux, The Iran-Iraq War, p. 3 (little Satan).

244

Murray and Woods, The Iran-Iraq War, p. 85 (their noses).

245

Rodger W. Claire, Raid on the Sun: Inside Israels Secret Campaign That Denied Saddam the Bomb (NewYork: Broadway Books, 2005); Razoux, The Iran-Iraq War, pp. 465-66 (cup of poison).

246

Adel Al Toraifi, Understanding the Role of State Identity in Foreign Policy Decision-making: The Rise of Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement (1997-2009), PhD thesis (London School of Economics, 2012), p. 149 (harmed relations), p. 154 (geographic reality); Bruce Riedel, Kings and Presidents: Saudi Arabia and the United States Since FDR (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2018), p. 97.

247

Kevin M. Woods, The Mother of All Battles: Saddam Husseins Strategic Plan for the Persian Gulf Wars (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2008), p. 96 (Iraqization), p. 197 (really harshly).

248

George H. W. Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed (NewYork: Vintage, 1999), pp. 319-20.

249

Woods, Mother of All Battles, p. 186 (camel).

250

Bush and Scowcroft, A World Transformed, p. 489; Woods, The Mother of All Battles, pp. 243-45 (strongest powers).

251

Sifry and Cerf, The Iraq War Reader, p. 269.

252

Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, The U.S. Army in the Iraq War: Surge and Withdrawal 2003-2006, vol. 1, pp. 140-44; Thomas E. Ricks, Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq (NewYork: Penguin, 2007), p. 163 (snatched defeat); Jim Mattis and Bing West, Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead (NewYork: Random House, 2019); Interview with Meghan OSullivan (payment to soldiers).

253

Susan Sachs and Kirk Semple, Ex-Leader, Found Hiding in Hole, NewYork Times, December 14, 2003.

254

Interviewing Saddam: FBI Agent Gets to the Truth, January 8, 2008, https://archives.fbi.gov/archivesnews/stories/2008/january/piro012808.

255

Kenneth M. Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict Between Iran and America (NewYork: Random House, 2004), pp. 282, 324 (masterminded), chapter 11; Bruce Riedel, Kings and Presidents: Saudi Arabia and the United States Since FDR (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2018), pp. 122-25.

256

Karim Sadjadpour, Reading Khamenei: The World View of Irans Most Powerful Leader (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009).

257

Adel Al Toraifi, Understanding the Role of State Identity in Foreign Policy Decision-Making, PhD thesis, (London School of Economics, 2012), pp. 200, 218 (our security), 215 (at the disposal).

258

U.S. Embassy Cables: Saudi Kings Advice for Barack Obama, Guardian, November 28, 2010; Jay Solomon, The Iran Wars (NewYork: Random House, 2016).

259

, , . . .

260

Ray Takeyh, Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 248 (500 kilometers), p. 161 (preeminent power); Joshua Teitelbaum, What Iranian Leaders Really Say About Doing Away with Israel: A Refutation of the Campaign to Excuse Ahmadinejads Incitement to Genocide (Jerusalem: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 2008), p. 66.

261

Ross Colvin, Cut Off Head, Reuters, November 29, 2010.

262

Interview with Carlos Pascual; Carlos Pascual, The New Geopolitics of Energy, Center for Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, 2015; Richard Nephew, The Art of Sanctions: A View from the Field (NewYork: Columbia University Press, 2018), chapter 7.

263

Solomon, Iran Wars, p. 246.

264

Iran Nuclear Crisis: What Are the Sanctions? BBC News, March 30, 2015 (wheels of industry); Suzanne Maloney, Irans Political Economy Since the Revolution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015), p. 493 (worst conditions).

265

William Burns, The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal (NewYork: Random House, 2019), chapter 9; Wendy R. Sherman, How We Got the Iranian Deal, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2018.

266

Burns, The Back Channel, p. 375 (good day), pp. 377-81.

267

David E. Sanger and William J. Broad, Now the Hardest Part: Making the Iran Deal Work, NewYork Times, October 17, 2015.

268

Viewpoint: How U.S. Can Reach New Iran Deal After Trump, BBC News, November 11, 2018; Remarks by President Trump on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, May 8, 2018.

269

Rouhani: Iran Will Export Crude Oil, AP, September 4, 2018.

270

Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future (NewYork: Norton, 2016), pp. 114-15, 143; Jeffrey Feitman, Hezbollah: Revolutionary Irans Most Successful Export, Brookings Institution, January 17, 2019; Kim Ghattas, Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Five Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East (NewYork: Henry Holt, 2020), chapters 7 and 16 (Iran and the rise of Hezbollah).

271

Mohamad Bazzi, King Salmans War, Politico, January 25, 2015.

272

Joby Warrick, Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS (NewYork: Doubleday, 2015), p. 300 (middle of the road).

273

Dexter Filkins, The Shadow Commander, NewYorker, September 30, 2013; Ali Alfoneh, Brigadier General Qassem Soleimani: A Biography, AEI, no. 1 (January 2011); Ali Soufan, Qassem Soleimani and Irans Unique Regional Strategy, CTC Sentinel 11, no. 10 (November 2018).

274

HMMWV humvee, High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle , . . .

275

Filkins, The Shadow Commander.

276

Iraq Oil Rush, NewYork Times, June 22, 2008 (suspicions); Iraq Systematic Country Diagnostic, World Bank, February 2017.

277

Interview with Dr. Ashti Hawrami; IHS Markit, KRG and Iraq Could Reach Oil Export and Revenue Deal in December, According to Turkey, December 4, 2013.

278

Renad Mansour and Faleh A. Jabar, The Popular Mobilization Forces and Iraqs Future, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 28, 2017.

279

Tim Arango etal., The Iran Cables, NewYork Times, November 19, 2019 (eyes closed, oil contracts); Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, The U.S. Army in the Iraq War, vol. 2, Surge and Withdrawal, 2007-2011 (2019), p. 639.

280

Mustafa Salim and Liz Sly, Widespread Unrest Erupts in Southern Iraq Amid Acute Shortages of Water, Electricity, Washington Post, July 14, 2018.

281

Robert Gates, Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War (NewYork: Knopf, 2014), p. 505; George H. W. Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed (NewYork: Knopf, 1998), p. 341 (my wise friend).

282

Interview with Frank Wisner; Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hard Choices (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 2014), p. 343 (peaceful transition); Gates, Duty, pp. 505-6 (exactly, now).

283

William Burns, The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal (NewYork: Random House, 2019), p. 466 (expectations); Gates, Duty, p. 507 (our allies).

284

David D. Kirkpatrick and Steven Lee Myers, Libya Attack Brings Challenges for U.S., NewYork Times, September 12, 2012.

285

Allan R. Millett and Peter Maslowski, For the Common Defense: A Military History of the United States from 1607 to 2012 (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 1994), (lost province); Souad Mekhennet and Joby Warrick, U.S. Increasingly Sees Irans Hand in the Arming of Bahraini Militants, Washington Post, April 1, 2017 (Soleimani).

286

Michael Knights and Matthew Levitt, The Evolution of Shia Insurgency in Bahrain, The Washington Institute, January 2018, p. 23.

287

Interview with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2011, Jay Solomon, The Iran Wars (NewYork: Random House, 2016), pp. 104-108.

288

堖 - , , , . . .

289

Patrick Seale, Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1988), p. 352 (fatwa); Moshe Maoz, Asad: The Sphinx of Damascus (NewYork: Grove Weidenfeld, 1988).

290

Nasser Menhall, Petition to the Legal Adviser, U.S. Department of State, October 30, 2013.

291

James Bennet, The Enigma of Damascus, NewYork Times Magazine, July 10, 2005.

292

Barack Obama, The Future of Syria, White House Blog, August 18, 2011.

293

C. J. Chivers and Eric Schmitt, Saudis Step Up Help for Rebels in Syria with Croatian Arms, NewYork Times, February 25, 2013.

294

Martin Dempsey in Obama at War, Frontline, PBS, season 2015, episode 10, transcript, www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/obama-at-war/transcript/.

295

Susan Rice, Tough Love: My Story of the Things Worth Fighting For (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 2019), pp. 362-69; Burns, Back Channel, pp. 328-30; Jeffrey Goldberg, The Obama Doctrine, Atlantic, April 2016 (playbook).

296

Greg Jaffe, The Problem with Obamas Account of the Syrian Red Line Incident, Washington Post, October 4, 2016 (stunning twist).

297

Mounir al-Rabih, Hezbollah and Iran in Syria, The Washington Institute, November 13, 2017.

298

On the Syrian Kurds, articles by Robin Wright in the NewYorker, April 4, October 20, 2019; United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Syria emergency, www.unhcr.org/en-us/syria-emergency.html.

299

Gregory D. Johnsen, The Last Refuge: Yemen, Al-Qaeda, and Americas War in Arabia (NewYork: Norton, 2014), chapter 17; Robert F. Worth, A Rage for Order: The Middle East in Turmoil from Tahrir Square to ISIS (NewYork: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2016), chapters 4 and 6.

300

Michael Knights, The Houthi War Machine, CTC Sentinel, September 2018, vol. 11, issue 8; Nicholas Niarchos, How the U.S. Is Making the War in Yemen Worse, NewYorker, January 15, 2018.

301

Gerald M. Feierstein, Irans Role in Yemen and Prospect for Peace, Middle East Institute, December 6, 2018 (air service).

302

Peter Salisbury, Yemen and the Saudi-Iranian Cold War, Chatham House, February 2015, pp. 8-9 (a victory); Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, The Resistance Axis Triumphs, Israel Panics, Speech, March 18, 2017 (decisive victory).

303

Sami Aboudi and Stephanie Nebehay, Saudi Oil Tanker Hit in Houthi Attack off Yemen Coalition, Reuters, April 3, 2018.

304

How and Why to the End the War in Yemen, The Economist, November 30, 2017.

305

Peter Salisbury, Yemen: National Chaos, Local Order, Research Paper, Chatham House, December 2017, p. 45.

306

Salisbury in Niarchos, How the U.S. Is Making the War in Yemen Worse.

307

Sam Dagher, What Iran Is Really Up To in Syria, The Atlantic, February 14, 2018; Kambiz Foroohar and Ladane Nasseri, Iran Wields Power from Syria to Gulf as Rise Alarms Sunni Rivals, Bloomberg, February 18, 2015.

308

IHS Markit, Israel: Oil & Gas Risk Commentary, August 2019; IHS Markit, Levantine Basin, Basin Insights Profile, October 19, 2016.

309

Interview with Eli Groner; Shoshanna Solomon, Octogenarian Geologist, Times of Israel, April 18, 2018.

310

Hezbollah Issues Fresh Threat, The Times of Israel, February 18, 2018 (Cease operating); Judah Ari Gross, With High-Tech Warships, The Times of Israel, February 5, 2018.

311

Tarek el-Molla and Yuval Steinitz at CERAWeek 2019.

312

Richard P. Mitchell, The Society of the Muslim Brothers (NewYork: Oxford University Press, 1993), pp. 2, 8-9 (We are brothers); Gudrun Krämer, Hasan alBanna (Oxford: Oneworld, 2010), chapter 2; Eric Trager, Arab Fall: How the Muslim Brotherhood Won and Lost Egypt in 891 Days (Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2016), pp. 46-51.

313

Lawrence Wright, The Looming Tower: Al Qaeda and the Road to 9/11 (NewYork: Vintage, 2011), pp. 9, 15.

314

Wright, The Looming Tower, pp. 34-35; Fawaz A. Gerges, Making the Arab World: Nasser, Qutb, and the Clash That Shaped the Middle East (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018), pp. 140-45, 223-32; John Calvert, Sayyid Qutb and the Origins of Radical Islamism (NewYork: Oxford, 2018), pp. 182-87.

315

Yaroslav Trofimov, The Siege of Mecca: The Forgotten Uprising in Islams Holiest Shrine and the Birth of al-Qaeda (NewYork: Penguin, 2007), p. 7 (modern times); Robert Lacey, Inside the Kingdom: Kings, Clerics, Modernists, Terrorists, and the Struggle for Saudi Arabia (NewYork: Penguin, 2010), chapters 2 and 3.

316

Trofimov, The Siege of Mecca, p. 248.

317

Shadi Hamid, The Temptations of Power: Islamists & Illiberal Democracy in the New Middle East (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015), pp. 14-15; Shadi Hamid, Islamists and the Brotherhood, in The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2011), pp. 31-34; Shadi Hamid, Islamic Exceptionalism: How the Struggle over Islam is Reshaping the World (NewYork: St. Martins Press, 2016), p. 80 (affiliates); Eric Trager, Arab Fall, pp. 48-55; 94-95 (a unified Islamic state, or a global Islamic union and a global Islamic state); Robert Worth, A Rage for Order (NewYork: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2016), chapter 5.

318

Wright, The Looming Tower, pp. 54-55, 211; Peter Bergen, The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict Between America and Al-Qaeda (NewYork: Free Press, 2011), chapter 2; Steve Coll, The Bin Ladens: An Arabian Family in the American Century (NewYork: Penguin Press, 2008).

319

Thomas Hegghammer, Jihad in Saudi Arabia: Violence and Pan-Islamism Since 1979 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010).

320

Lukáš Tichý and Jan Eichler, Terrorist Attacks on the Energy Sector: The Case of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 41, no. 6 (2018), pp. 455, 465; Lisa Marshall, Terrorism and Friendship in Algeria, Colorado School of Mines Magazine 103, no. 2 (Summer 2013).

321

Charles Lister, The Syrian Jihad: Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Evolution of an Insurgency (NewYork: Oxford University Press, 2015), p. 192 (find them).

322

Lister, The Syrian Jihad, p. 214; David Ignatius, How Isis Spread in the Middle East, Atlantic, October 29, 2015.

323

Joby Warrick, Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS (NewYork: Doubleday, 2015), p. 299 (Persians).

324

Interviews.

325

Alissa J. Rubin, Militant Leader, NewYork Times, July 5, 2014; Warrick, Black Flags, pp. 304-305 (Rome); Liz Sly, The Hidden Hand, Washington Post, April 4, 2015; Hugh Kennedy, Caliphate: The History of an Idea (NewYork: Basic Books, 2016), pp. 63, 70; Damien McElroy, Rome Will Be Conquered Next Says Leader of Islamic State, Telegraph, July 1, 2014.

326

Timeline: The Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State, Wilson Center, October 28, 2019.

327

In Audio Recording, ISIS Leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi Says Operations Underway, Urges Caliphate Soldiers to Free Captives, MEMRI, September 16, 2019.

328

Department of Defense Briefing on Baghdadi raid, October 30, 2019, www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2004092/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-assistant-to-the-secretary-of-defense-f/.

329

Neil Hume and Anjli Raval, Iraq Violence Lights Fuse to Oil Price Spike, Financial Times, June 20, 2014.

330

Ali Al-Naimi, Out of the Desert: My Journey from Nomadic Bedouin to the Heart of Global Oil (NewYork: Portfolio/Penguin, 2016), pp. 286-88; Robert McNally, Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices (NewYork: Columbia University Press, 2017), pp. 212-16; Raf Sanchez, Barack Obama: Iran Could Be a Successful Power, Telegraph, December 29, 2014.

331

Sheikhs v Shale, The Economist, December 12, 2014; Asjylyn Loder, Shale Producers Clobbered, Bloomberg, September 10, 2015.

332

Interview (Every study we saw).

333

Ali Al-Naimi, Speech, CERAWeek, February 23, 2016; Al-Naimi, Out of the Desert; Daniel Yergin, The Global Battle for Oil Market Share, Wall Street Journal, December 15, 2015; Wael Mahdi, Saudi Prince Affirms Oil Strategy as Market Seen as Excellent, Bloomberg Business, April 28, 2015.

334

Meeting with Deputy Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud, September 4, 2016, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52825.

335

Rania El Gamal, Alex Lawler, and Vladimir Soldatkin, OPEC Agrees Modest Oil Output Curbs in First Deal Since 2008, Reuters, September 28, 2016.

336

OPECs Sanusi Barkindo, Bloomberg TV, December 1, 2016.

337

Jim Burkhard, Bhushan Bahree, and Aaron Brady, The New Math of Oil: The Inadvertent Swing Supplier the United States, IHS Markit Strategic Report, February 2015; Vladimir Soldatkin and Oksana Kobzeva, Russia Offers to Sell Gas, Reuters, December 8, 2017 (rivals into partners).

338

Donald J. Trump, tweet, April 20, 2018.

339

Donald J. Trump, tweet, June 22, 2018.

340

Trump Says He Wants to Go Slower on Sanctions, Reuters, November 5, 2018.

341

Ana Vanessa Herrero, After U.S. Backs Juan Guaidó as Venezuelas Leader, Maduro Cuts Ties, NewYork Times, January 23, 2019 (usurper).

342

The Economist, May 11, 2019.

343

Rawan Shaif and Jeremy Binnie, Attack on Saudi Oil Facilities Deepens Regional Malaise, Janes, October 9, 2019.

344

Ali Soufan, Qassem Soleimani and Irans Unique Regional Strategy, CTC Sentinel, November 2018.

345

Peter Baker etal., 7 Days in January, The NewYork Times, January 12, 2020; Parisa Hafezi, Irans Khamenei Stands by Guards, Reuters, January 17, 2020.

346

Stephen Kalin and Katie Paul, Saudi Arabia Says It Has Seized over $100 Billion in Corruption Purge, Reuters, January 30, 2018.

347

Saudi Arabias Heir to the Throne Talks to 60 Minutes, CBS, March 9, 2018; Full Transcript of Saudi Crown Princes CBS Interview with Nora ODonnell, Including Unaired Answers, Arabia5AM, October 1, 2019.

348

Samia Nakhoul, William Maclean, and Marwa Rashad, Saudi Prince Unveils Sweeping Plans, Reuters, April 25, 2016 (at the mercy); John Kemp, Saudi Arabia Will Struggle to Kick Its Addiction, Reuters, April 27, 2016.

349

W. H. Berg to R. W. Hanna, March 14, 1938, and W. J. Lenahan to L. N. Hamiton, Declaration of Commercial Production, October 30, 1938, Chevron archives; Telegram to E. A. Skinner, March 4, 1938, Saudi Aramco archives.

350

Mohammed bin Salman Talks to Time, Time, April 5, 2018 (mud huts).

351

International Monetary Fund, Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues, Country Report 19/ 291, September 2019, p. 4.

352

. . .

353

Ezzoubeir Jabrane, Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia: Concerts and Cinema Are Haram, Morocco World News, January 15, 2017; Kristin Smith Diwan, Let Me Entertain You: Saudi Arabias New Enthusiasm for Fun, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, March 9, 2018.

354

James Lemoyne, Mideast Tensions; Ban on Driving by Women Reaffirmed by Saudis, NewYork Times, November 15, 1990; Saudi Arabia Fatwa on Womens Driving of Automobiles (Shaikh Abdel Aziz Bin Abdallah Bin Baz), 1990.

355

Kim Mackrael, Paul Vieira, and Donna Abdulaziz, Saudi Students Fret over Future After Order to Leave Canada, Wall Street Journal, August 9, 2018.

356

Cleveland Clinic, , , ; . . .

357

The Abu Dhabi Economic Vision for 2030 (Abu Dhabi Economic Council for Development, 2008); Abu Dhabi Chamber and IHS Markit, Biannual Abu Dhabi Economic Report, December, 2019; Nearly 50 Years On, Adviser Remembers First Abu Dhabi Master Plan, The National, June 14, 2016 (village); Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayeds Inspirational Vision, The National, February 10, 2015; interviews.

358

Vision 2030, gov.sa/en.

359

Full Transcript of Saudi Crown Princes CBS Interview, Arabia5AM, October 1, 2019 (book a room).

360

International Monetary Fund, Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues, Country Report 19/ 291, September 2019, p. 12 (jobs).

361

On East Asian miracle, Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy (NewYork: Touchstone, 2002), chapters 6 and 7.

362

Erdoğan Seeks to Expand Turkeys Influence in the Middle East Through Diplomacy and Force, The Conversation, April 17, 2018; Erdoğan: Turkey Is the Only Country That Can Lead the Muslim World, Yeni Şafak, October 15, 2018.

363

Adam Taylor, As America Tries to End Endless Wars, Americas Biggest Mideast Base is Getting Bigger, Washington Post, August 21, 2019. 2019 (in the center).

364

initial public offering . . .

365

Interview with Muhammad bin Salman, The Economist, January 6, 2016.

366

Transcript: Muhammad bin Salman, The Economist, January 6, 2016.

367

Saudi Crown Prince Discusses Trump, Aramco, Arrests: Transcript, Bloomberg, October 5, 2018 (investment powerhouse); International Monetary Fund, Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues, Country Report 19/291, September 2019, p. 9.

368

Clifford Krauss, Saudi Oil Price Cut, NewYork Times, March 9, 2020; Nelli Sharushkina and Amena Bakr, Saudi-Russia Rift, International Oil Daily, March 9, 2020 (wondering and more time); Nelli Sharush, Russia Braces for Price War, International Oil Daily, March 11, 2020 (variants); Alexander Novak Interview on Russia Channel 1, April 13, 2020.

369

Sechin: Low Oil Prices, Interfax, March 20, 2020; Joshua Yaffa, Russian-Saudi Oil War Went Awry, The NewYorker, April 15, 2020 (strategic threat).

370

Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Councils 2020 Project (December 2004); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Bill Gates Ted Talk, April 3, 2015, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI.

371

Alexander Novak interview, Ekho Moskvy Radio, April 2, 2020.

372

Interview (dire); interview with Don Sullivan; March 13, 2020, letter to Crown Prince; March 25, 2020, letter to Honorable Mike Pompeo; Tucker Higgins, Ted Cruz, Other Senators, Warn Saudis, CNBC, March 30, 2020 (economic warfare); Lutz Kilian, Michaal D. Plante, and Xiaoqing Zhou, How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy, Dallas Federal Reserve, May 2020.

373

Coronavirus Task Force Briefing, March 19, 2020 (person driving the car); Javier Blas, Trumps Oil, Bloomberg, April 13, 2020 (so low and wiped out); Coronavirus Task Force Briefing, April 1, 2020; Donald J. Trump, Tweet, April 2, 2020 (my friend).

374

Frank Kane, Saudi Arabia Calls Urgent Meeting of Oil Producers, Arab News, April 2, 2020; Meeting on the Situation in Global Energy Markets, April 3, 2020, Kremlin website.

375

Mohammad Barkindo, Remarks to OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting, April 9, 2020.

376

Coronavirus Task Force Briefing, April 8, 2020 (hated OPEC); Dan Brouillette, Remarks for G20 Extraordinary Energy Ministers Meeting, April 10, 2020; Benoit Faucon, Summer Said, and Tim Puko, U.S., Saudi Arabia, Russia Lead Pact, Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2020; The Largest Oil Supply Cut in History, Oil Market Insight, IHS Markit, April 12, 2020.

377

Anjli Raval, Saudi Arabia Says Price War, Financial Times, April 14, 2020 (departure and divorce lawyers); Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, April 17, 2020.

378

Jim Burkhard, Covid-19 Oil Prices, Oil Market Briefing, IHS Markit, April 20, 2020.

379

Interview with J. B. Straubel.

380

Interview with J. B. Straubel; IHS Markit, Reinventing the Wheel: The Future of Cars, Oil, Chemicals, and Electric Power, Part I Report, June 2017, p. VI-3; David Keyton, Three Win Nobel in Chemistry, Phys.org, October 9, 2019.

381

Interview with J. B. Straubel.

382

Ashlee Vance, Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future (London: Virgin Books/Penguin, 2016), p. 161 (sucked); Levi Tillemann, The Great Race: The Global Quest for the Car of the Future (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 2015), p. 152 (Lutz).

383

Tillemann, The Great Race, p. 241.

384

Interview with Daniel Akerson.

385

Interview with Mary Barra.

386

Interview with Mary Barra.

387

Virginia Gewin, Turning Point: Daniel Carder, Nature, November 18, 2015; Gregory J. Thompson, In Use Emissions Testing of Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles in the United States, Final Report, Center for Alternative Fuels, Engines and Emissions, West Virginia University, May 15, 2014; Philip E. Ross, How Engineers at West Virginia University, IEEE Spectrum, September 22, 2015; David Morgan, West Virginia Engineer, Reuters, September 23, 2015.

388

Chris Reiter and Elisabeth Behrmann, VWs Diesel Woes Reach $30 Billion, Bloomberg, September 29, 2017; VW Diesel Crisis: Timeline, Cars.com, December 7, 2017; Is Diesel Dead in the EU and Will Electrification Take Its Place? IHS Markit AutoIntelligence Strategic Report, November 27, 2017.

389

Herbert Diess, Speeches: at the Global Board Meeting, January 16, 2020, November 4, 2019, September 9, 2019, Annual General Meeting, May 14, 2019.

390

Jack Ewing, Volvo, Betting on Electric, NewYork Times, July 5, 2017.

391

Interview with Bill Ford; Akiko Fujita, Toyota Chairman, CNBC, September 5, 2017 (Toyota); Elon Musk | Full Interview | Code Conference 2016, YouTube, June 2, 2016, www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsixsRI-Sz4.

392

Jim Burkhard, Electric Geography: Nearly Half of U.S. EVs in One State California, IHS Markit Mobility and Energy Future Strategic Report, October 22, 2018.

393

Emissions elsewhere vehicle : . . .

394

MacLellan and Faulconbridge, Electric Cars Win? (Tavares).

395

Interview (Norway); Tillemann, The Great Race, p. 180 (Senate staffer).

396

California Air Resources Board, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov-our-work/programs/volkswagen-zero-emission-vehicle-zev-investment-commitment/about.

397

Tillemann, The Great Race, p. 99 (tractors), p. 115 (day by day).

398

Premasish Das and Xiaonan Feng, Electricity Takes the Bus, Strategic Report, IHS Markit, June 2018.

399

IHS Markit, Reinventing the Wheel, p. IV-10; Jeff Meyer etal., From Carrot to Stick: How Chinas EV Policy Support Is Evolving, IHS Markit Mobility and Energy Future Insight, September 18, 2019.

400

Pulse of Change: Update on LV and EV Sales, Global EV Sales in 2019 Edge Out Higher than in 2018 But Pace of Growth Sharply Decelerates, February 14, 2020, IHS Markit Mobility and Energy Future Insight.

401

Nitin Gadkari Tells Carmakers: Move to Electric Cars, NDTV, September 7, 2017.

402

Inside Indias Messy Electric Vehicle Revolution, NewYork Times, August 22, 2019; Dharmendra Pradhan and Ajit Jindal, Remarks at India Energy Forum by CERAWeek, October 14-16, 2018.

403

Sintia Radu, Toyota and Mazda Join Forces, Washington Post, August 4, 2017.

404

India Energy Forum 2017 by CERAWeek, October 8-10, 2017.

405

Pulse of Change: Update on LV and EV Sales, Global EV Sales.

406

Interview with J. B. Straubel; MIT Energy Initiative, Insights into Future Mobility (Cambridge, MA: MIT Energy Initiative, 2019); Elena Pravettoni, Sam Huntington, and Youmin Rong, How Fast Are Electric Vehicle Battery Costs Falling, IHS Markit Power and Renewables Strategic Report, October 2019.

407

IHS Markit Lithium and Battery Materials Service.

408

IHS Markit and Energy Futures Initiative, Advancing the Landscape of Clean Energy Innovation, Breakthrough Energy Coalition, February 2019.

409

Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: Global and National Perspectives (Santa Barbara: Praeger, 2017).

410

Interview with Bill Ford.

411

Radio-Driven Auto Runs Down Escort, NewYork Times, July 28, 1925; IHS Markit, Reinventing the Wheel, p. III-16.

412

The DARPA Grand Challenge: Ten Years Later, DARPA, March 13, 2014.

413

Interview with Sebastian Thrun; Christine OToole, What Drives Red Whittaker, Pittsburgh Quarterly, Winter 2018; The Great Robot Race, Nova, PBS, March 28, 2006.

414

Interview with Sebastian Thrun; The Great Robot Race.

415

Interview with Sebastian Thrun; Conor Dougherty, How Larry Pages Obsession Became Googles Business, NewYork Times, January 22, 2016; Arjun Kharpal, Googles Larry Page Disguised Himself, CNBC, May 11, 2017.

416

Interview with Lawrence Burns; Scott Corwin and Rob Norton, The Thought-Leader Interview: Lawrence Burns, strategy+business, Autumn 2010; Lawrence Burns and Christopher Shulgin, Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How It Will Reshape Our World (NewYork: HarperCollins, 2018).

417

Lindsay Chappell, 2007: The Moment Self-Driving Cars Became Real, Automotive News, December 19, 2016 (Whittaker).

418

Interview with Sebastian Thrun; Sebastian Thrun, What Were Driving At, Google Blog, October 9, 2010.

419

Burkhard Bilger, Auto Correct, NewYorker, November 18, 2013.

420

Taxonomy, and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles, SAE, June 6, 2015, www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_201806/.

421

Rebecca Yergin, IoT Update: Navigating the Course of Spectrum for Connected and Automated Vehicle Technologies, National Law Review, November 30, 2018.

422

National Science and Technology Council and the U.S. Department of Transportation, Assuring Americas Leadership in Automated Vehicles Technologies: Automated Vehicles 4.0 (Washington D. C., 2020); Rebecca Yergin, NHTSA Continues to Ramp Up Exploration of Automated Driving Technologies, Covington & Burling, Blog, April 2020.

423

Marco della Cava, Garage Startup Uses Deep Learning to Teach Cars to Drive, USA Today, August 30, 2016.

424

Interview with Garrett Camp; UberCab pitch deck, December 2008.

425

Adam Lashinsky, Wild Ride: Inside Ubers Quest for World Domination (NewYork: Portfolio/Penguin, 2017), pp. 80-81, 91.

426

Megan Rose Dickey, Lyfts Rides Are So Social, Business Insider, March 16, 2014; Travis Kalanick, Uber Policy White Paper, Principled Innovation: Addressing the Regulatory Ambiguity, April 12, 2013 (compete).

427

Bring Your Own Car, . BYOD Bring Your Own Device, , . . .

428

Didi Chuxings Founder Cheng Wei, Times of India, August 8, 2016.

429

Interview with Jean Liu.

430

Mike Isaacs, Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber (NewYork: W. W. Norton, 2019), chapters 27-30; Farhad Manjoo, Ubers Lesson, NewYork Times, June 21, 2017; Anita Balakrishnan, Heres the Full 13-Page Report of Recommendations for Uber, CNBC, June 13, 2017.

431

Michael Sivak, Younger Persons Are Still Less Likely to Have a Drivers License Than in the 1980s, January 6, 2020, https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/01/20200106-sivak.html.

432

Adrienne LaFrance, The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers, Atlantic, December 1, 2015; IHS Markit, Mobility and Energy Future: 2019 Update, July 2019.

433

Lawrence D. Burns with Christopher Shulgan, Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car And How It Will Reshape Our World (NewYork: HarperCollins, 2018).

434

Interview with Bill Ford.

435

Mike Colias, Tim Higgins, and William Boston, Will Tech Leave Detroit in the Dust? Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2018 (Toyoda).

436

Interview with Bill Ford.

437

Interview with Mary Barra.

438

Interview with Bill Ford.

439

On net zero carbon: David Victor, Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate Change, Yale Environment 360, January 28, 2020; John Deutch, Is Net Zero Carbon by 2050 Possible? June 2020, https://eartharxiv.org/bvf5c/. On coal and Darby: Peter Brimblecombe, Attitudes and Responses Towards Air Pollution in Medieval England, Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association 26, no. 10 (October 1976), pp. 941-45; R. A. Mott, Abraham Darby (I and II) the Coal Iron Industry, Transactions of the Newcomen Society 31, no. 1 (1957); Nancy Cox, Imagination and Innovation of an Industrial Pioneer: The First Abraham Darby, The Industrial Archaeology Review 12 (1990), pp. 127-44; Shopshire: Industrial Heritage, BBC, http://www.bbc.co.uk/shropshire/content/articles/2009/02/12/abraham_darby_feature.shtml (doubt me); Barrie Trinder, The Darbys of Coalbrookdale (Chichester, UK: Phillimore, 1978), chapter 2; Barbara Freese, Coal: A Human History (NewYork: Penguin Books, 2004), pp. 24-32.

440

Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: Global and National Perspectives (Santa Barbara: Praeger, 2017).

441

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (NewYork: Cambridge University Press, 2007); Rajendra Pachauri, CERAWeek, February 11, 2008; Gayathri Vaidyanathan, U. N. Climate Science Body Launches Search to Replace a Strong Leader, E& E News, February 25, 2015.

442

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva: IPCC, 2014); Steven Koonin, Climate Science Is Not Settled, Wall Street Journal, September 19, 2014.

443

Mark Landler and Helene Cooper, After a Bitter Campaign, Forging an Alliance, NewYork Times, March 18, 2010 (worst meeting); Bruce Einhorn, Why the US-China Emissions Pact Could Be a Climate Change Breakthrough, Bloomberg, November 12, 2014.

444

Fiona Harvey, Paris Climate Change Agreement, Guardian, December 14, 2015; Suzanne Goldenberg, John Vidal, Lenore Taylor, Adam Vaughan, and Fiona Harvey, Paris Climate Deal, Guardian, December 12, 2015 (secretary-general); Remarks by President Obama on the Paris Agreement, October 5, 2016; Donald Trump Would Cancel Paris Climate Deal, BBC News, May 27, 2016 (Trump).

445

Global Climate Project, Global Climate Report 2019; Daniel Yergin, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World (NewYork: Penguin, 2011), pp. 422-28.

446

Greta Thunberg, No One Is Too Small to Make a Difference (NewYork: Penguin, 2019), pp. 10, 62, 96-99; Charlotte Alter, Suyin Haynes, and Justin Worland, 2019 Person of the Year Greta Thunberg, Time, December 11, 2019; Greta Thunberg, Luisa Neubauer, and Angela Valenzuela, Why We Strike Again, Project Syndicate, November 29, 2019.

447

2℃. . .

448

Mark Carney, Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizons Climate Change and Financial Stability, Speech, September 29, 2015.

449

. . .

450

Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosures, Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosures, June 2017; Larry Finks Letter to CEOs, January 14, 2020; Climate Bonds Initiative 2019; Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson and Billy Nauman, Fossil Fuel Divestment Had Zero Climate Impact, Says Bill Gates, Financial Times, September 17, 2019.

451

Valerie Pavilonis and Matt Kristofferen, Delay Second Half of The Game, Yale Daily News, November 23, 2019; Alan Murray and David Meyer, Against Oil Divestment, Fortune, November 26, 2019 (Swensen).

452

Climate Accountability Institute and Union of Concerned Scientists, Establishing Accountability for Climate Change Damages: Lessons from Tobacco Control, La Jolla, California, June 14-15, 2012, www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/04/establishing-accountability-climate-change-damages-lessons-tobacco-control.pdf; Amie Tsang and Stanley Reed, Guardian Stops Accepting Fossil Fuel Ads, NewYork Times, January 30, 2020; Anna Bateson and Hamish Nicklin, Guardian Will No Longer Accept Fossil Fuel Advertising, Guardian, January 29, 2020.

453

Hiroko Tabuchi and Nadja Popovich, How Guilty Should You Feel About Flying? NewYork Times, October 17, 2019; Climate Confessions, NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/specials/climate-confessions-share-solutions-climate-change-n1054791; James Pickford, RSC Brings Curtain Down, Financial Times, October 2, 2019.

454

Opening Statement in the European Parliament Plenary Session by Ursula von der Leyen, Strasbourg, July 16, 2019; Ewa Krukowska and Bloomberg, A Quantum Leap in Its Ambition: Europes Investment Bank, Fortune, November 15, 2019; Kelly Levin and Chantal Davis, What Does Net-Zero Emissions Mean? 6Common Questions, Answered, WRI, September 17, 2019; European Commission, Supplementary Report on Using the TEG Taxonomy, June 2019; Final Report on Financing a Sustainable European Economy (March 2020).

455

Samuel Petrequin and Raf Casert, EU Commission President Announces European Green Deal, Christian Science Monitor via Associated Press, December 11, 2019; Jean Pisani-Ferry, A Credible Decarbonization Agenda Can Help Strengthen Europes Economy, Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 9, 2019; European Commission, Europes Moment: Repair and Prepare for the Next Generation, May 27, 2020; EU press release, Europes Moment, May 27, 2020.

456

Christina Zhao, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Warns, World Is Going to End in 12 Years, Newsweek, January 22, 2019; Green New Deal Fact Sheet, February 7, 2019, https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/5729035/Green-New-Dea-FAQ.pdf; House Resolution 109, Recognizing the Duty of the Federal Government to Create a Green New Deal, February 2, 2019. For an analysis of a Green New Deal in terms of how the economy has changed and government has evolved, see Jason Bordoff, Getting Real About the Green New Deal, Democracy Journal, March 25, 2019.

457

The Father of Photovoltaics Martin Green Profile, ABC, May 26, 2011.

458

John Fialka, Why China Is Dominating the Solar Industry, Scientific American, September 19, 2016; Charlie Zhu and Bill Powell, Special Report: The Rise and Fall of Chinas Sun King, Reuters, May 18, 2013.

459

Martin Green, How Did Solar Cells Get So Cheap? Joule 3, no. 3, March 20, 2019, pp. 631-33.

460

IHS Markit, PV Module Supply Chain Tracker, PV Installation Tracker; PV Supplier Tracker; Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21), Renewables 2018: Global Status Report, p. 97 (cutthroat pricing).

461

IHS Markit, Global Renewable Power Market Outlook, March 2020.

462

IHS Markit Global Energy Scenarios; Varun Sivaram, Taming the Sun (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2018), pp. 43-45.

463

Sivaram, Taming the Sun, pp. 56, 71.

464

Ernest Moniz etal., Optionality, Flexibility & Innovation: Pathways for Deep Decarbonization in California (Washington, D.C.: Energy Futures Initiative, May 2019); Timothy P. Gardner, Michael Stoppard, Dan Clay, and Raul Timponi, Exploring the Efficient Frontier: A Global Perspective on the Gas-Renewables Partnership, Global Gas Strategic Report, IHS Markit, September 2018.

465

IHS Markit and Energy Futures Initiative, Advancing the Landscape of Clean Energy Innovation Breakthrough Energy Coalition, February 2019, chapter 3; Third Way, 2019 Advanced Nuclear Map, October 2019.

466

IHS Markit launched a major research program on hydrogen in 2017 that focused on Europe, California, and China and continues in the Forum on Hydrogen and Renewable Gas.

467

Joeri Rogelj etal., Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5℃ in the Context of Sustainable Development, in Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5℃, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2018; IPCC, B. Metz etal., eds., IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005); Francois Bastin etal., The Global Tree Restoration Potential, Science 365, no. 6448 (July 5, 2019), pp. 76-79. For an overview of options, see U.S. National Petroleum Council, Meeting the Dual Challenge: A Roadmap to At-Scale Deployment of Carbon Capture, Use, and Storage: Final Report, December 12, 2019.

468

Salk Institute, Harnessing Plants Initiative, https://www.salk.edu/harnessing-plants-initiative/.

469

Timipre Sylva, Nigerian minister of state and petroleum resources, Remarks at Russian Energy Week, October 2019; WHO Guidelines for Indoor Air Quality: Household Fuel Combustion (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2014), Household Air Pollution and Health, May 8, 2018.

470

Government of India, Economic Survey 2018-2019, p. 180; Alex Thornton, 7 of the Worlds 10 Most Polluted Cities, World Economic Forum, March 5, 2019.

471

Shreerupa Mitra, ed. Energizing India: Fueling a Billion Lives (New Delhi: Rupa Publications, 2019), pp. 13-14, and for an overview of Indias energy position.

472

Interview with Dharmendra Pradhan.

473

Mitra, Energizing India, p. 74 (gas-based economy).

474

Interview with Dharmendra Pradhan.

475

Atul Arya, Whither Energy Transition? Blog, December 13, 2019.

476

Remarks, International Energy Forum, Beijing, December 5, 2019; State Council, Peoples Republic of China, Premier Calls for High Quality Energy Development, October 11, 2019, http://english.www.gov.cn/premier/news/201910/11/contentWS5da08a3fc6d0bcf8c4c14e92.html.

477

IHS Markit Mobility and Energy Future Scenarios 2019.

478

Tsvetana Paraskova, IEA Chief: EVs Are Not the End of the Oil Era, OilPrice.com, January 22, 2019 (Fatih Birol); John Heimlich, Tracking Impacts of COVID-19, Airlines for America, April 24, 2020.

479

Fenit Nirappil, On Patrol with the Enforcer of DCs Plastic Straw Ban, Washington Post, January 28, 2019.

480

Prachi Patel, Stemming the Plastic Tide: 10 Rivers Contribute Most of the Plastic in the Oceans, Scientific American, February 1, 2018; Source: Christian Schmidt, Tobias Krauth, and Stephan Wagner, Export of Plastic Debris by Rivers into the Sea, Environmental Science and Technology 51, no. 21 (November 7, 2017); Jeremy Hess, Daniel Bednarz, Jaeyong Bae, and Jessica Pierce, Petroleum and Health Care: Evaluating and Managing Health Cares Vulnerability to Petroleum Supply Shifts, American Journal of Public Health 101, no. 9 (2011), pp. 1568-79; A Sea Change: Plastics Pathway to Sustainability, Multi-Client Study on Recycling & Sustainability, IHS Markit, November 2018.

481

Mark P. Mills, Testimony Before the U.S. Senate Energy Committee Sources and Uses of Minerals for a Clean Energy Economy, September 16, 2019.

482

Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy (NewYork: Simon & Schuster, 2002).

483

Interview; Lee Hsien Loong, The Endangered Asian Century, Foreign Affairs, July-August 2020, pp. 52, 61.

484

Chris Giles, Richest Nations Face $17 Trillion Government Debt, Financial Times, May 25, 2020.

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